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Objective To compare the prediction effect of combined model and single model in HFRS incidence fitting and prediction, and to provide a reference for optimizing HFRS prediction model. Methods The province with the highest incidence in China (Heilongjiang Province) in recent years was selected as the research site. The monthly incidence data of HFRS in Heilongjiang Province from 2004 to 2017 were collected. The data from 2004 to 2016 was used as training data, and the data from January to December 2017 was used as test data. The training data was used to train SARIMA , ETS and NNAR models, respectively. The reciprocal variance method and particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO) were used to calculate the model coefficients of SARIMA, ETS and NNAR, respectively, to construct combined model A and combined model B. The established models were used to predict the incidence of HFRS from January to December 2017. The fitted and predicted values of the five models were compared with the training data and test data, respectively. Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Standard Deviation (RMSE), and Mean Error Rate (MER) were used to evaluate the model fitting and prediction effects. Results The optimal SARIMA model was SARIMA(1,0,2)(2,1,1)12. The optimal ETS model was ETS(M, N, M), and the smoothing parameter =0.738，=1*10. The optimal NNAR model was NNAR(13,1,7)12. The residuals of the three single models were white noise (P>0.05). The expression of combined model A was ŷ=0.134*ySARIMA+0.162*yETS+0.704*yNNAR; the expression of combined model B was ŷ=0.246*ySARIMA+0.435*yETS+0.319*yNNAR. The MAPE, MAE, RMSE, and MER fitted by SARIMA, ETS, NNAR, combined model A and combined model B were 24.10%, 0.11, 0.17, 23.29%; 17.14%, 0.08, 0.14, 17.96%; 6.33%, 0.02, 0.03, 4.25%; 9.03%, 0.03, 0.05, 7.51%; 13.16%, 0.06, 0.09, 12.33%, respectively. The MAPE, MAE, RMSE, and MER predicted by the five models were 18.70%, 0.05, 0.06, 19.62%; 23.83%, 0.06, 0.07, 24.49%; 28.30%, 0.07, 0.10, 29.21%; 21.69%, 0.06, 0.08, 22.63%; 17.39%, 0.05, 0.07, 18.76%, respectively. Conclusion The fitting and prediction effects of the combined models are better than the single models. The combined model based on PSO to calculate the weight of the single model is the optimal model.
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Objective To explore the applicability of the TBATS in predicting the incidence of mumps. Methods The incidence of mumps of Jiangxi Province from 2004 to 2017 was used as the demonstration data. The incidence of mumps in Jiangxi Province from July to December 2017 was used as test data. The training data from January 2004 to June 2017 were used to train the TBATS and the SARIMA, and predict the value from July to December 2017. The fitted and predicted values were compared with the test data. The MAPE, RMSE, MAE and MER were used to evaluate model fitting and prediction effects. Results SARIMA (1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 with drift was the optimal SARIMA. The MAPE, MAE, RMSE and MER fitted by the TBATS and the SARIMA were 15.06%, 0.21, 0.29, 13.57% and 21.93%, 0.29, 0.41, 18.73%, respectively. The MAPE, MAE, RMSE and MER predicted by the TBATS and the SARIMA were 7.95%, 0.08, 0.11, 7.12% and 15.33%, 0.17, 0.18, 14.93%. Conclusion The TBATS has high accuracy in predicting the incidence of mumps and is worthy of popularization and application.
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Objective:To analyze the molecular characteristics of Echovirus 11 (Echo11) strains isolated in Xiangyang, Hubei Province from 2016 to 2017 based on the sequences of VP1 gene.Methods:Rectal and throat swab specimens were collected from children with hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Xiangyang from 2016 to 2017. Echo11 strains were detected by real-time reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR) and isolated after cultured in human rhabdosarcoma (RD) cells. The VP1 regions of Echo11 strains isolated from RD cells and the whole genomes of three representative Echo11 strains were amplified by conventional RT-PCR and the sequences were analyzed. DNAStar7.0 (MegAlign) and MEGA6.0 (Data) were used to analyze the homology and mutation sites in nucleotide and amino acid sequences. Neighbor-joining method was used to construct phylogenetic trees. Recombination analysis was performed with SimPlot software (BootScanning).Results:A total of 11 Echo11 strains were isolated from 3 494 HFMD cases, accounting for 0.31%. They were highly homologous in the VP1 gene. These strains shared 98.4%-100.0% homology in nucleotide sequences and 98.3%-100.0% homology in amino acid sequences. The homology between the 11 Echo11 strains and the prototype strain (Echo11/Gregory, X80059) was 73.9%-74.8% in nucleotide sequences and 87.7%-88.7% in amino acid sequences. All of the Echo11 strains circulating in Xiangyang were classified into lineage D, having a similarity to the strains circulating in some regions of mainland China since 2013. In multiple regions of the genome, the Echo11 strains isolated in Xiangyang were highly similar to the Henan Echo1 strains in 2010 and the Hubei Echo6 strains in 2015, suggesting there was recombination within the genome of Echo11 strains in Xiangyang.Conclusions:The Echo11 strains circulating in Xiangyang from 2016 to 2017 belonged to lineage D and were recombinant strains.
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Objective To analyze the global status of COVID-19 epidemics, so as to preliminarily forecast the epidemic trend. Methods The epidemiological data of 208 countries and the prevention and control policies implemented by typical countries from December 31, 2019 to December 14, 2020 were collected. We use the cumulative incidence rate, cumulative mortality, cumulative fatality and real-time dependent reproduction number (Rt) to analyze the epidemic status. We use the provenance package to group different countries and discuss the effect of prevention and control measures. Results As of December 14, 2020, a cumulative incidence of 93.49 per 10000, a cumulative mortality rate of 0.21‰, and a cumulative fatality rate of 3.1‰ had been reported globally.112 of the 208 countries still had Rt ≥ 1.0, and 96 countries had Rt t , and the government had adopted more relaxed epidemic prevention measures. The epidemic situation in this region may continue to deteriorate, and needs to be focused in the later period.
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Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 at the end of December 2019, Hubei province has actively adopted a series of prevention and control measures such as “quarantine, treatment, testing, and containment”, and have basically blocked the spread of COVID-19. However, with the development of overseas epidemics and the occurrence of case clusters in local areas, we not only face the threat of imported cases, but also face the urgent need to resume normal work and daily life. This puts forward higher requirements for regular prevention and control of COVID-19. Therefore, we should more deeply understand the significance of regular prevention and control as well as the epidemic situation in our province, summarize experience and lessons, and adhere to the prevention and control strategy of “government-led, group-specialist combination, and specialized-oriented”. Meanwhile, it is necessary to implement the working requirement that combines regular prevention and control surveillance with rapid emergency response to local COVID-19 outbreaks. Furthermore, we should establish a regular multi-point trigger early warning mechanism for COVID-19, strengthen the reserve of emergency supplies and carry out training and drills on epidemic prevention and control across the province to make full preparations for the coming autumn and winter epidemics. The most important is to reform the system of disease prevention and control and public health, comprehensively improve the ability of prevention and treatment, and promote the modernization of public health governance.
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Objective To analyze the treatment outcomes of multidrug-resistant pulmonary tuberculosis (MDR-TB) cases in Hubei Province. Methods From October 2006 to June 2017, a retrospective cohort analysis of treatment outcomes for 1 447 patients with MDR-TB who were included in treatment was performed. Excel worksheet was created to establish database by monthly and quarterly reports. The statistical analysis of data was conducted using SPSS 21.0 software. Results Among 1 447 MDR-TB patients, 1 076 were males and 371 were females, with an average age of 44.44±14.28 years. 798 patients were cured, 63 patients completed the course of treatment, and the overall treatment success rate was 59.50% (861/1 447). The treatment success rate was68.02% (268/394) in newly diagnosed cases, and 56.32% (593/1 053) in relapse cases. There was a significance difference between the two groups (χ2=16.30，P2=26.65，P2=1.34，P=0.25). Conclusion It is extremely important to screen drug-resistant individuals for smear-positive patients, and to detect and treat drug-resistant patients timely. The negative conversion of sputum bacteria at the end of 6th month had important predictive significance for the treatment outcomes of MDR-TB patients. The patients with continued positive sputum at the end of 6th month should be closely monitored to adjust treatment according to the progress of the patient's condition and to explore a way to shorten the treatment course.
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Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of the novel coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19), and to scientifically guide the prevention and control of COVID-19 in Hubei Province. Methods All COVID-19 cases reported online in Hubei Province as of March 31, 2020 were extracted from Hubei's Infectious Disease Information System. The epidemic curve, age and sex characteristics, and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the COVID-19 cases were analyzed. Results As of March 31, 2020, a total of 70 764 cases were reported in Hubei Province, including 49 195 confirmed cases. A total of 4 579 deaths occurred among the confirmed cases, and the reported case fatality rate was 6.47%. The peak of the onset of symptoms occurred from January 20 to February 14, 2020. The sex ratio of male to female of the confirmed cases was 0.99: 1, and most were 30-69 years old. The cases diagnosed before January 5 were mainly reported by Wuhan City. From January 6 to January 31, all counties and districts in the province reported that the incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases began to rise, and about 50% counties reported that the morbidity rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases was over 10 cases per 100 000. The morbidity rate of COVID-19 cases rose rapidly between February 1-15, and then gradually reached its peak after February 16. Conclusion Wuhan City of Hubei Province first discovered and reported the COVID-19 outbreak. The onset of symptoms peaked in January 20 to February 14, and the 30-69 years old group was the key population. Many measures such as restricting personnel movement, reducing contact, and strengthening health education played an important role in controlling the outbreak of COVID-19 in Hubei.
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Objective To explore the progress and prospect of preventive, predictive, personalized and participatory (4P) medicine in China in order to promote the “4P” medicine and provide reference for the government and medical institutions to strengthen health management. Methods An in-depth analysis and review of the “4P” medical service model was conducted through literature review. The prospect of the future development of the “4P” medicine was discussed. Results In recent years, with the advancement of human health concepts and the completion of the genome project, the human healthcare model has been gradually shifting to the “4P” medical service model, namely preventive-predictive-personalized-participatory integrated medicine. It can be seen that modern medical model has been in the process of continuous transformation, which is more human-oriented and emphasizes people’s initiative. Conclusions With the widespread and understanding of the “4P” medicine among healthcare workers, the value of the “4P” medicine in public health and clinical practice has been continuously proven.
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This study investigated the ability of millimeter-wave (MMW) to promote the differentiation of bone marrow stromal cells (BMSCs) into cells with a neural phenotype. The BMSCs were primarily cultured. At passage 3, the cells were induced by beta-mercaptoethanol (BME) in combination with MMW or BME alone. The expressions of nucleostemin (NS) and neuron-specific enolase (NSE) were detected by immunofluorescent staining and Western blotting respectively to identify the differentiation. The untreated BMSCs predominately expressed NS. After induced by BME and MMW, the BMSCs exhibited a dramatic decrease in NS expression and increase in NSE expression. The differentiation rate of the cells treated with BME and MMW in combination was significantly higher than that of the cells treated with BME alone (P<0.05). It was concluded that MMW exposure enhanced the inducing effect of BME on the differentiation of BMSCs into cells with a neural phenotype.